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Probabilistic Oil Forecasting

How Foretic fits in the oil market

Oil prices respond to supply disruptions, demand shifts, geopolitical events, and OPEC decisions. Foretic provides probability distributions showing the full range of possible WTI outcomes, with institutional-grade risk metrics and calibration tracking.

Our Bayesian Ensemble model quantifies uncertainty, helping traders and investors make better oil allocation decisions with honest forecasts backed by quantifiable risk measures.

Why Oil Needs Probabilistic Forecasting

What Foretic does for oil traders and investors

The Oil Geopolitics Problem

Oil prices are highly sensitive to supply disruptions, OPEC decisions, and geopolitical tensions. Traditional point forecasts fail because they ignore uncertainty across these scenarios. Foretic's probability cones show the full range of possible WTI outcomes.

Probability Distributions for Oil

See 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentile WTI oil forecasts over your chosen time horizon. Understand not just what might happen, but how likely each scenario is given current supply, demand, and geopolitical conditions.

Risk Metrics for Oil

Every oil forecast includes tail risk (CDaR, VaR), drawdown expectations, and probability of beating cash. Quantify oil exposure with institutional-grade metrics suitable for portfolio allocation and hedging decisions.

Forecast Any Market

Start Forecasting Oil

Get access to institutional-grade oil forecasts with probability distributions, risk metrics, and calibration tracking. Turn your WTI predictions into verifiable assets.